This past week in mortgage land was what you might call… a placeholder. The kind of week where nothing flashy happens, but somehow you still end up checking the fridge five times just in case something exciting shows up. With no blockbuster economic reports on the calendar, volatility hit near-record lows.
And yet, without anyone throwing confetti, mortgage rates quietly strung together tiny daily wins. Think of it like finding quarters in your couch cushions every day—one by one, they don’t seem like much, but by the end of the week you’ve got yourself enough for a venti latte. These little victories stacked up to bring rates to their lowest point since October 3rd, 2024. Not bad for a “boring” week.
Each rate move was teeny-tiny—no more than 0.02% in a single day. That’s so small most borrowers wouldn’t notice unless they had a microscope and way too much free time. Still, technical wins are wins, and they added up. According to MND’s index, top-tier conventional 30-year fixed rates now sit at a clean 6.50%, the lowest in nearly 11 months.
The truth is, this dip in rates isn’t a brand-new surprise—it’s more like a sequel. The trend started after the unexpectedly weak jobs report on August 1st (the plot twist no one saw coming). That report, plus revisions to earlier months, convinced the market that maybe the labor force wasn’t flexing quite as hard as we thought. The Fed’s “next moves” got reimagined, and mortgage rates slid most of the way to current levels practically overnight.
Unlike the lazy river of a week we just floated through, next week looks more like whitewater rapids. The economic calendar is packed. While the Friday jobs report is still the headline act (always the Beyoncé of the week), the supporting cast is strong. Even Wednesday’s ADP private payrolls report is getting extra buzz. Traders aren’t suddenly doubting the government’s data—they just remember that two months ago ADP called out a payroll slowdown before the official numbers admitted it.
Bottom line: we just basked in one of the calmest, most pleasant weeks for rates in 2025. Enjoy it like the last day of summer break, because calm is not likely to stick around. By next Friday, the conversation could be an entirely different ballgame depending on how the jobs data lands. And no, that doesn’t mean next week will be bad—just that it has way more potential for fireworks. Stay tuned