Last week gave us one of those “wait… what?!” moments in mortgage news. On one hand, the headlines were all like: “Mortgage Rates Drop!” Meanwhile, we were over here waving red flags and shouting, “Um… biggest rate spike in years, folks!”
So, who was lying?
Actually… no one.
But only one of those headlines showed up to the party on time.
The “rates are down” news came from weekly survey data — the kind that takes a leisurely stroll through rate trends, then shows up late and slightly confused. That’s because those reports rely on averaging, and by the time they hit the presses, they were still sipping on the lower rates from the previous week. Meanwhile, the real-time daily data had already invited higher rates in and given them the guest room.
Basically, Friday the 4th was a cozy little low-rate haven. Fast forward to Friday the 11th, and boom — rates reached their highest peak since February. No sugarcoating it: rates were definitely up.
And this week? The lagging surveys finally rubbed the sleep out of their eyes and caught up with reality. Both Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) admitted, “Yup, okay, things did spike.”
But here’s the twist: now that everyone’s finally on the same page, the reason they’re on the same page is different.
Daily averages are now chilling in the high 6% range because they fell from the low 7s.
Weekly averages? Also in the high 6s — but because they jumped from the mid 6s.
So… same spot, completely different journey. Classic mortgage math.
Now, before you panic-buy a cabin in the woods and start stockpiling gold, here’s some good news: mortgage rates are easing again. That’s largely thanks to a calming statement from the Trump administration, which helped soothe the financial markets that were spiraling over last week’s volatility. In short: the vibes got better.
But let’s not light the fireworks just yet — we’re not totally out of the woods. The policy path (especially regarding tariffs) is still murky. Will tariffs drive prices up (inflation = bad for rates)? Or will they slow the economy (sluggish growth = good for rates)?
Even Fed Chair Powell seemed like he was working through a tough Wordle puzzle this week. He basically said, “Look, we’re stuck between wanting to cut rates to help the economy… and needing to raise them to battle inflation.”
So, yeah — it’s complicated.
But hey, at least it’s not boring.